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Abstract AimTo better understand the potential impact of climate change on butterfly assemblages across a tropical island, we model the potential for taxonomic and functional homogenization and determine climate‐ and trait‐mediated shifts in projected species distributions. LocationPuerto Rico. MethodsWe used thousands of museum records of diurnal Lepidoptera to model current (1970–2000) and forecast future (2061–2080) species distributions and combined these to test for taxonomic and functional homogenization. We then quantified climatic‐mediated effects on current and forecasted taxonomic and functional composition and, specifically, whether temperature was a primary driver, as predicted by the temperature–size rule and the thermal melanism hypotheses. Finally, we measured wing traits important in thermoregulation (size and colour) and determined trait‐mediated changes in forecasted species distributions over time. ResultsBased on ensemble model outputs, taxonomic and functional richness and turnover were predicted to vary across the island's complex topography. Our models projected an increase in taxonomic and functional richness over time, and a decrease in taxonomic and functional turnover – a signature of biotic homogenization. Under future climate scenarios, models projected a decrease in wing length and an increase in wing brightness at higher elevations. One variable, temperature seasonality, was the strongest predicted driver of both the current spatial distribution and the projected per cent change over time for not only wing traits but also taxonomic and functional richness and turnover. Main conclusionsThe species distribution models generated here identify several priority regions and species for future research and conservation efforts. Our work also highlights the role of seasonality and climatic variability on diverse tropical Lepidoptera assemblages, suggesting that climatic variability may be an important, albeit overlooked, driver of climate change responses. 

Abstract The “hierarchy of factors” hypothesis states that decomposition rates are controlled primarily by climatic, followed by biological and soil variables. Tropical montane forests (TMF) are globally important ecosystems, yet there have been limited efforts to provide a biome‐scale characterization of litter decomposition. We designed a common litter decomposition experiment replicated in 23 tropical montane sites across the Americas, Asia, and Africa and combined these results with a previous study of 23 sites in tropical lowland forests (TLF). Specifically, we investigated (1) spatial heterogeneity in decomposition, (2) the relative importance of biological factors that affect leaf and wood decomposition in TMF, and (3) the role of climate in determining leaf litter decomposition rates within and across the TMF and TLF biomes. Litterbags of two mesh sizes containingLaurus nobilisleaves or birchwood popsicle sticks were spatially dispersed and incubated in TMF sites, for 3 and 7 months on the soil surface and at 10–15 cm depth. The within‐site replication demonstrated spatial variability in mass loss. Within TMF, litter type was the predominant biological factor influencing decomposition (leaves > wood), with mesh and burial effects playing a minor role. When comparing across TMF and TLF, climate was the predominant control over decomposition, but the Yasso07 global model (based on mean annual temperature and precipitation) only modestly predicted decomposition rate. Differences in controlling factors between biomes suggest that TMF, with their high rates of carbon storage, must be explicitly considered when developing theory and models to elucidate carbon cycling rates in the tropics. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.